Roy the Roo's Forecast July

12-Jul-2011

Roy the Roo’s Forecasts

While I am shivering in the Land Down Under, in an extremely cold winter not experienced for decades (where is that global warming when you need it) peering at my foggy crystal ball, I have the following predictions:

European Forwarders are expecting a downturn in August possibly until December.

Shipping lines are not implementing a General Rate Increase (GRI) but are, instead, issuing Rate Restoration amounts - do they really think we can fall for this? There is strong resistance to any increases from all quarters and I doubt we will see a peak season surcharge this season leading to Christmas.

Many of the major lines have placed orders for new container vessels. Due to hit the market next year, with almost 230 new vessels with a total capacity of over 1.5 million TUE, will put further pressure on shipping lines to push their eroded rates higher.

Oil prices are still up and down like a yoyo (mostly up) and therefore BAF adjustments are becoming a regular monthly item, particularly on Australian/Euro and USA routes.

Air cargo space from LAX to Australia will remain in short supply and transit times are already stretched to beyond 7 days due to backlogs incurred by the volcanic ash and increased demand leading to December.

Hong Kong airport has enjoyed further increases in air cargo volumes and we should see further pressure upwards on rates.

In Australia, expect to see further industrial action at the ports causing more backlogs, delays and vessel re-routing. Port charges and shipping lines’ local charges have been, and will continue to increase. We have also seen new charges being implemented such as port infrastructure charges in Brisbane and Fremantle and I am sure, with their usual inventiveness, the lines and the stevedores will be able to dream some more up, let alone the State and Federal Governments.

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At last, someone comes up with the "right" asnewr!

I try Daisy